Assume Nothing; Question Everything

As we have just passed the 10 year anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, I find myself applying the lessons learned from the massive error in thinking that led to the war.

Ten years ago, the Bush Administration, most of the Congress and much of the public assumed that Saddam Hussein was hiding WMD in Iraq. There were enough statements made by the Administration to lead us to believe that if we invade, not only will we find the WMD but we will also be greeted as liberators. We were wrong. Group think and assumptions led to what became a quagmire. I learned from this.

As a State Rep, I assume almost nothing when it comes to your taxes, what works, what will keep people safe, what we should be worried about, etc. My standard has been and will continue to be ‘show me.’ Sometimes I am pleased, other times I am not. For example, I have found group-think written as research reports, a weak method in the way a return on an investment was once done, and a serious selection bias in a market analysis. (Don’t ask me which agencies; I let the agency head know and that is how it should be.) I ask for the reports not because I care about the specific conclusion; I care about the way we arrive at a conclusion. Republicans and Democrats, liberals and conservatives can all find something that will support the conclusions they want. That is what happened with Iraq. This is why I care about the process.

All State Reps have their own processes to make a decision. I worked in government and I know that a lot of group-think goes on and that reports are too often written to reflect what is wanted. As such, my process is a ‘methods’ one. It is transparent, fair and I can sleep well knowing that this is my process.

Let me offer three examples of big issues on Beacon Hill right now. I am being lobbied by all sides of these issues, and I am getting a steady stream of emails from constituents on both sides of the issues. Two issues involve raising taxes for education and transportation. I want to support education and transportation. I don’t even mind raising taxes to help pay for these under the right circumstances. But will I? That is where process comes in. I want to know that if we spend your tax payer dollars on any project we are going to get the outcome we want and expect. So, I ask: has a market analysis been done? Has an analysis been done that we will get a return on our investment? Has a cost benefit analysis been done? What are we doing about efficiencies and waste and alternative revenue/funding sources? Does Attleboro’s economy support a tax hike at this time? Are we going to invest enough? Are we going to invest too much? Are people's lives going to be better? Show me the projections and estimates.

A third issue is guns (emails about dogs don’t fill up my inbox anymore). Here is my approach. I recently drafted a bill that is designed to help reduce violence and gun violence where it is happening by the people doing the crime using existing laws. In my research, one of the best and quickest ways to reduce violence is through the police. With better police training we can see better outcomes and fewer civil rights violations. More on this another time.

Based on an objective process, sometimes my conclusions may side with Republicans, other times squarely with Democrats. I may be called a liberal and other times DINO (Democrat In Name Only). If I am worried about what people will call me, I am in the wrong profession.

As I said, I am being approached by lobbyists all the time who advocate for a wide range of issues. They make their cases, I ask for reports, I read the reports, I scrutinize how well they were done, and then I decide if a good case has been made to support the agenda being pushed. Weak methods are too often used to push the belief we will get a particular outcome, which is why I don’t look at the reports’ conclusions; I look at how the report’s methodology was done. There are some poorly done reports out there. There are also some good ones. There are some good reports out there that are going to lead me to cast a vote that won’t be too popular, depending on where you sit, that is.

I say assume nothing; question everything. That is a guiding principle but in reality, there are always things that we can assume. The point is that a process is more important than the outcome.

I was working in Saudi Arabia at the time of the start of the war in Iraq and I was paying attention very closely to the lead up to the war and the justifications for that war. One big lesson I learned from the war in Iraq was that we should not assume anything. Ask for the evidence that we will get the outcome we want and review the methods that were used to arrive at the conclusion. It is not exciting. It is not ideological. Its labor intensive. But it is my process. 

Paul Heroux is the State Representative from the Second Bristol District. He can be reached at paulheroux.mpa@gmail.com or 508-455-2547.